Saturday, March 2, 2013
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
WorldBank Predicts 4°C warmer world by 2100
New World Bank-commissioned report warns the world is on track to a “4°C world” marked by extreme heat-waves and life-threatening sea level rise. (more...)
The report, reviewed by some of the world’s top scientists, is being released ahead of the next comprehensive studies by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013/14, and follows the Bank’s own Strategic Framework for Development and Climate Change in 2008 and the World Development Report on climate change in 2010. "Turn Down the Heat" combines a synthesis of recent scientific literature with new analysis of likely impacts and risks, focusing on developing countries. It chronicles already observed climate change and impacts, such as heat waves and other extreme events, and offers projections for the 21st century for droughts, heat waves, sea level rise, food, water, ecosystems and human health.
The report says today’s climate could warm from the current global mean temperature of 0.8°C above pre-industrial levels, to as high as 4°C by 2100, even if countries fulfill current emissions-reduction pledges.
"This report reinforces the reality that today’s climate volatility affects everything we do," saidRachel Kyte, the Bank’s Vice President for Sustainable Development. "We will redouble our efforts to build adaptive capacity and resilience, as well as find solutions to the climate challenge."
The World Bank doubled lending for climate change adaptation last year and plans to step up efforts to support countries’ initiatives to mitigate carbon emissions and promote inclusive green growth and climate-smart development. Among other measures, the Bank administers the $7.2 billion Climate Investment Funds now operating in 48 countries and leveraging an additional $43 billion in clean investment and climate resilience.
This report reinforces the reality that today’s climate volatility affects everything we do
– Rachel Kyte, Vice President, Sustainable Development, World Bank
Rising Sea Levels
The report says sea levels have been rising faster in the last two decades than previously, and this rise is being seen in many tropical regions of the world. This phenomenon is partly due to melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets; the rapid growth in melt area observed since the 1970s in Greenland’s ice sheet is a clear illustration of its increasing vulnerability. Arctic sea ice also reached a record minimum in September 2012. "There are indications that the greatest melt extent in the past 225 years has occurred in the last decade," says the report.
"It’s early yet but clearly some of the small island states and coastal communities are beginning to take a hard look at their options," said Erick Fernandes, co-lead of the Bank’s Global Expert Team on Climate Change Adaptation. "The need to adapt to climate change will increase as global population reaches 9 billion in 2050," he added.
Ocean Acidification
Coral reefs are acutely sensitive to changes in water temperature and acidity levels. The report warns that by the time the warming levels reach 1.4° C in 2030s, coral reefs may stop growing. This would be a result of oceans becoming more acidic as a result of higher CO2 concentrations. And with 2.4° C, coral reefs in several areas may actually start to dissolve. This is likely to have profound consequences for people who depend on them for food, income, tourism and shoreline protection.
Heat Extremes
A 4°C warmer world would also suffer more extreme heat waves, and these events will not be evenly distributed across the world, according to the report.
Sub-tropical Mediterranean, northern Africa, the Middle East, and the contiguous United States are likely to see monthly summer temperatures rise by more than 6°C. Temperatures of the warmest July between 2080-2100 in the Mediterranean are expected to approach 35°C – about 9°C warmer than the warmest July estimated for the present day. The warmest July month in the Sahara and the Middle East will see temperatures as high as 45°C, or 6-7°C above the warmest July simulated for the present day.
Lower agricultural yields
Hotter weather could in turn lower crop yields in a 4°C world—raising concerns about future food security. Field experiments have shown that crops are highly sensitive to temperatures above certain thresholds. One study cited in the report found that each “growing degree day” spent at a temperature of 30 degrees decreases yields by 1% under drought-free rain-fed conditions.
The report also says drought-affected areas would increase from 15.4% of global cropland today, to around 44% by 2100. The most severely affected regions in the next 30 to 90 years will likely be in southern Africa, the United States, southern Europe and Southeast Asia, says the report. In Africa, the report predicts 35% of cropland will become unsuitable for cultivation in a 5°C world.
Risks to Human Support Systems
The report identifies severe risks related to adverse impacts on water availability, particularly in northern and eastern Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. River basins like the Ganges and the Nile are particularly vulnerable. In Amazonia, forest fires could as much double by 2050. The world could lose several habitats and species with a 4°C warming.
Non-linear impacts
As global warming approaches and exceeds 2°C, there is a risk of triggering nonlinear tipping elements. Examples include the disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet leading to more rapid sea-level rise, or large-scale Amazon dieback drastically affecting ecosystems, rivers, agriculture, energy production, and livelihoods. This would further add to 21st-century global warming and impact entire continents.
The projected 4°C warming simply must not be allowed to occur—the heat must be turned down. Only early, cooperative, international actions can make that happen.
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
THRIVE MOVEMENT
Sowing Solutions for a Sustainable Future with the THRIVE MOVEMENT
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Invasive Beetle Destroys Forests Of Trees
Goldspotted Oak Borer Beetle kills forests of Oaks in Southern California.
Monday, October 29, 2012
FRONTLINE: Climate of Doubt
Professional contrarians are attacking science again, and they are doing it for the carbon-fuel industries. Your local utilities could be their funders. Watch this FRONTLINE documentary and vote.
If you are in Fred Upton's (R-MI) district, recall him. Fred is Chairman of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, he is in the pocket of the Koch Brothers gas lobby.
If you are in Frank James (Jim) Sensenbrenner, Jr. (R-WI) representing Wisconsin's 5th congressional district. Get him out of office. He is in the pocket of the carbon-fuels Corporations.
American Politics is now under control of the huge sums of money that come from every carbon-fuel lobby from GM to BIG Oil, Auto Insurance to Gas Refiners like the Koch Brothers, from "Clean Coal" to your local utilities, they are all terrified of CAP & TRADE laws to limit carbon pollution.
Where they can't buy an election, they delay and obstruct. Where they can't fool the adult voters, they change the textbooks, eliminate words like "Sea Level Rise", which they deem to be 'left wing vocabulary'.
These nefarious forces rely upon their ignorance as an argument, counting upon the limited education of their constituants to sell their radical skepticism. It's not just the fact that they fail to use science or facts, its that they obviously have a direct conflict of interest with the fossil fuel industries, and they willingly take that funding, but don't recuse themselves from the policy debates. This is unethical.
This level of corruption, that attacks science and scientists, changes textbooks, and pays for elections, is all for profit, is no different than the tabaco industry fraud, or the O-zone debates, or any of the issues where Corporate interests are threatened by government regulations and policy changes. These people are always on the side of the dollar.
They buy up talk-radio stations and talking heads by the dozen. They fund "Americans For Prosperity"and other ideologically motivated foundations through secret organizations such as "Donors Trust". This anonymously funds these fraudulent projects, seeking to avoid transparency and responsibility for corrupting the political process.
If they are wrong, they will help cause the suffering and death of millions of people and perhaps hundreds of thousands of species. For their own financial interests they are attacking generations yet unborn, hoping they will be long dead and beyond accountability as the world burns. This is pure evil.
Learn more ...
Watch Climate of Doubt on PBS. See more from FRONTLINE.
"In 50 years, 100 years, when we look back, I want to make sure that nobody can say we didn't warn them." -Andrew Dessler: Science and the Politics of Climate Change
If you are in Fred Upton's (R-MI) district, recall him. Fred is Chairman of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, he is in the pocket of the Koch Brothers gas lobby.
If you are in Frank James (Jim) Sensenbrenner, Jr. (R-WI) representing Wisconsin's 5th congressional district. Get him out of office. He is in the pocket of the carbon-fuels Corporations.
American Politics is now under control of the huge sums of money that come from every carbon-fuel lobby from GM to BIG Oil, Auto Insurance to Gas Refiners like the Koch Brothers, from "Clean Coal" to your local utilities, they are all terrified of CAP & TRADE laws to limit carbon pollution.
Where they can't buy an election, they delay and obstruct. Where they can't fool the adult voters, they change the textbooks, eliminate words like "Sea Level Rise", which they deem to be 'left wing vocabulary'.
These nefarious forces rely upon their ignorance as an argument, counting upon the limited education of their constituants to sell their radical skepticism. It's not just the fact that they fail to use science or facts, its that they obviously have a direct conflict of interest with the fossil fuel industries, and they willingly take that funding, but don't recuse themselves from the policy debates. This is unethical.
This level of corruption, that attacks science and scientists, changes textbooks, and pays for elections, is all for profit, is no different than the tabaco industry fraud, or the O-zone debates, or any of the issues where Corporate interests are threatened by government regulations and policy changes. These people are always on the side of the dollar.
They buy up talk-radio stations and talking heads by the dozen. They fund "Americans For Prosperity"and other ideologically motivated foundations through secret organizations such as "Donors Trust". This anonymously funds these fraudulent projects, seeking to avoid transparency and responsibility for corrupting the political process.
If they are wrong, they will help cause the suffering and death of millions of people and perhaps hundreds of thousands of species. For their own financial interests they are attacking generations yet unborn, hoping they will be long dead and beyond accountability as the world burns. This is pure evil.
Learn more ...
Steve Coll: How Exxon Shaped the Climate Debate
Sunday, October 7, 2012
"Externalities" (prepare to cry)
READ THIS, IT'S IMPORTANT:
"Economists say, if you clearcut the forests and put [the money] in the bank, you could make 6 or 7 percent. If you cut down the forests and put it into Malaysia or Papua New Guinea, you could make 30 or 40 perc
"Economists say, if you clearcut the forests and put [the money] in the bank, you could make 6 or 7 percent. If you cut down the forests and put it into Malaysia or Papua New Guinea, you could make 30 or 40 perc
ent. So, who cares whether you keep the forest, cut it down [and] put the money somewhere else! When those forests are gone, put it in fish; when the fish are gone, put it in computers. Money doesn't stand for anything, and money now grows faster than the real world.
Economics is so fundamentally disconnected from the real world, it is destructive. If you take an introductory course in economics, the professor—in the first lecture—will show a slide of the economy, and it looks very impressive. They try and impress you, because they know damn well that economics is not a science, but they're trying to fool us into thinking that it's a real science; it's not.
Economics is [just] a set of values, and [they] use mathematical equations and pretend that it's a science. But, if you ask the economist, 'in that equation, where do you put the ozone layer? Where do you put the deep, underground aquifers? Where do you put top soil or biodiversity?', their answer is 'oh, those are externalities.' Well, then you might as well be on Mars! That economy's not based [on] anything like the real world. It's life, the web of life, that filters water, it's microorganisms in the soil that create the soil we can grow our food in…insects fertilize all of the flowering plants…nature performs all kinds of services…these services are vital to the health of the planet. Economists call these externalities; that's NUTS."
—David Suzuki
(★★★★) Must Watch Video ft. above quote:
http://vimeo.com/49953262
Economics is so fundamentally disconnected from the real world, it is destructive. If you take an introductory course in economics, the professor—in the first lecture—will show a slide of the economy, and it looks very impressive. They try and impress you, because they know damn well that economics is not a science, but they're trying to fool us into thinking that it's a real science; it's not.
Economics is [just] a set of values, and [they] use mathematical equations and pretend that it's a science. But, if you ask the economist, 'in that equation, where do you put the ozone layer? Where do you put the deep, underground aquifers? Where do you put top soil or biodiversity?', their answer is 'oh, those are externalities.' Well, then you might as well be on Mars! That economy's not based [on] anything like the real world. It's life, the web of life, that filters water, it's microorganisms in the soil that create the soil we can grow our food in…insects fertilize all of the flowering plants…nature performs all kinds of services…these services are vital to the health of the planet. Economists call these externalities; that's NUTS."
—David Suzuki
(★★★★) Must Watch Video ft. above quote:
http://vimeo.com/49953262
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